April 12, 2004

A few interesting notes.  Blurbs from Jayson Stark's column about the opening day comeback:

Before this year, according to the Elias Sports Bureau, the Royals had played 2,759 home games in team history and had never come from four runs down (or more) in the bottom of the ninth to win a game. They did it against the White Sox in their first game this year.

But that's not all. Before that rally, Elias reports, no team had scored six runs or more in the ninth inning on Opening Day since the 1929 Giants did it against the Phillies. And no team had rallied from at least four runs down in the ninth to win on Opening Day since the 1901 Tigers came from nine back to beat Milwaukee in the first game in Tigers history.

The conventional wisdom is that the Royals' luck from last year seems to be spilling over.  That may be true.  They're 4-2 despite having trailed (by a lot) early in all but two games (Gobble's beautiful start and Reyes' very nice spot start).  They have only outscored their opponents 28-27, and their starters have generally gotten hit hard.  I want to point out a few things that suggest reasons for some optimism:

1. The starting pitching will probably get better.

2. The bullpen has been very solid (actually, I wrote very solid before I actually ran the numbers.  In truth, it's been spectacular -- 1.98 ERA, 4-0 record, 22 2/3 Innings, 21 hits allowed, 6 walks, 18 K).  Without this performance, they would not have won all those games.  Their bullpen has cleaned the clocks of the Sox' and Twins' pens and that has enabled the R's to win.

3. The team will score more runs.  They've scored 28 in 6 games -- about 4.6/game.  They are projected to score about 5.5/game.

So, the bullpen has started solid, and both the starters and hitters should improve.  Good things, all.

Notes on my jihad against Sweeney jumping on the first or second pitch:  He actually saw 5 pitches in his first at bat yesterday!  Yay!  Then he swung at the second pitch in all three other at bats.  Boo!  I am not just making this up.  Over the past four years, he has averaged 3.64, 3.62, 3.67 and 3.79 pitches per at plate appearance.  So far this year?  3.19.  Very significant.  Also, over the last four years, he has averaged one walk every 8.85 plate appearances.  This year? One walk in 25 plate appearances.  Part of the explanation for the latter may be having Juan Gone hitting behind him.  But he's still got to get the right pitch and actually hit it hard.  He is pressing, and hurting the team.

April 9, 2004

OK, I am not going to panic about the rotation.  All of the starters are quality pitchers.  They will get it together.  The bullpen has been encouraging.  I think it will be solid.  The bench is still deep and strong.  What I am concerned about is that the offense - particularly Sweeney, seems to be pressing.  Sweeney has swung at the first pitch in probably 3/4 of his at bats.  Peña, or somebody, needs to sit him down and get him to play his game rather than trying to win every game on the first pitch he sees.  I suggest fining him $500 or maybe (given that he makes $11 million a year) $5,000 for every first pitch that he swings at.  Even if he hits a home run.

I saw a very interesting blurb - there is a direct linear correlation between team's won-loss records and the number of starts they get from left handed pitchers.  Let's hope that trend continues . . .

April 7, 2004

My oh my.  Holy cow.  ¡Ay caramba!  I could write about this one for a long, long time.  That kind of come back, in that kind of situation, happens once or twice in a lifetime.

Very, very exciting!

Interestingly, Beltran came up again in today's game representing the winning run in the bottom of the ninth.  No second miracle.  That being said, the Royals could do a lot worse than arranging to have Beltran come up in every game as the winning run in the bottom of the ninth.

A few things I do think this opening day portends: (1) the White Sox' bullpen is awful and will be an albatross around their necks all season, (2) Ozzie Guillen really is as bad of a manager as people have been speculating, (3) the Royals are going to be in quite a few 9-7 games (or their moral equivalent) this season (that was a LOT of home runs), and (4) Tony Peña is a better manager even than I had given him credit for.

Some expansion on the last point:  In the bottom of the ninth, I was freaking out as Peña let first Harvey, then Santiago bat against tough right handed pitchers while Matt Stairs sat on the bench.  What I was neglecting, though, was that Damaso Marte, the Sox' best reliever and a lefty, was warmed up and ready to go.  Peña played it right and then used Stairs as a decoy (which was a gutsy play), replacing him with Mendy Lopez to great effect.  Baird gave Peña a much better bench than last year, and, at least in this one game, he used it masterfully.  (Although he did fail to run for Harvey with Rich Thompson in the ninth, costing Benito Santiago an RBI on his double -- nobody's perfect, I suppose).

So, the Royals are 1-1, and Detroit is 3-0, having obliterated the Blue Jays.  Tampa Bay has split four with the Yankees.  Barry Bonds did NOT hit his 660th home run off Roger Clemens.  (The very possibility of that, however, is enough to give one chills.)  I love this game.  I'm glad, glad, glad its back!

Interesting Links:

Excellent March 7 Posnanski column about Peña

Not strictly a Royals link, but very interesting -- ESPN's Hot Stove Heaters -- Daily articles on the upcoming year

Peter Gammons' January 11 column discussing most improved teams

A periodic discussion on the Royals between Rob Neyer (ESPN Baseball Columnist) and Rany Jazayerli (Baseball Prospectus writer), both Royals fans

Joe Posnanski's January 6 column on Gonzalez (just before the signing)